28 April 2009 – Publication of DWP working paper 60: Can we estimate the impact of the Choices package in Pathways to work?
This new methodological working paper from the Institute for Fiscal Studies and published today by the Department for Work and Pensions, explores whether it was possible to estimate the impact of the Choices package in Jobcentre Plus Pathways to Work using the statistical technique of propensity score matching.
In this study, propensity score matching involved establishing two groups of similar participants and non-participants through controlling for a series of characteristics (demographics, health, employment and benefits related) to isolate and therefore, estimate the impact of Choices participation.
The report concludes that it was not possible to produce reliable causal estimates of the impact of the Choices package for two main reasons:
- It is difficult to establish comparison groups and therefore compare the outcomes of Choices participants and non-participants because there are inconsistencies in the data available from survey and administrative records about participation in the programmes available in Choices.
- More fundamentally, as participation in Choices is voluntary, it is difficult to know how far different outcomes for participants and non-participants are caused by Choices and how far they reflect pre-existing (and unobserved) differences in the type of people who choose to participate, e.g. individual motivation and expectations, family support and severity of health condition. These factors were not measured in this research study, and therefore, it was not possible to control for their influence in the analysis.
With these strong caveats in mind, it is possible, however cautiously to report that the descriptive analysis showed that Choices participants were more likely than similar Choices non-participants:
- to be in paid work two years after the start of their claim
- to be in receipt of incapacity benefits after six months but less likely to be claiming two years after the start of the claim
- to report an improvement in their health condition
Notes to Editors
- The DWP working paper: Can we estimate the impact of the Choices package in Pathways to work? is published today on DWP’s website.
- Pathways to Work provides extra help for people on incapacity benefits to find work. Since the national roll-out completed in April 2008, the programme is delivered by Jobcentre Plus in 40% of the country, with the Provider-Led model operating in 60% of the country.
- As part of the programme within Jobcentre Plus led areas, a variety of work and health related services, known collectively as the Choices package, are available to customers to help them move back towards work or help them manage their health condition. Key examples of this include the Condition Management Programme and New Deal for Disabled People. It is this aspect of the Pathways programme which is the focus of this research.
- The report authors are Stuart Adam, Antoine Bozio and Carl Emmerson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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Prepared by: Department for Work and Pensions Welfare to Work Directorate
