6 December 2005 - Publication Of DWP Research Report 296: Labour
market transitions among the over-50s
New research published today by the Department for Work and Pensions explores the labour market transitions among those aged between 50 and state pension age.
This research examines the transitions that people aged 50 to state pension age make between 4 states: employment, unemployment, inactivity with some desire to work and inactivity with no desire to work. Econometric techniques are used to analyse longitudinal data and the research explores the extent and timing of transitions by considering state and duration dependence.
The main findings are:
- Employment is the most common and most stable state. Inactivity with no desire to work is also very stable and the next most common state. Unemployment and inactivity with some desire to work are unstable states, with most people who move out of inactivity with some desire to work moving to inactivity with no desire to work. These states are much less common than employment and inactivity with no desire to work.
- Average length of non-employment for inactive individuals with no work is 7 years for men and 14 years for women.
- The probability of being in a given state is larger for individuals already observed in that state in the previous quarter than for anyone else. This is known as state dependence.
- The likelihood of making a transition out of a state declines the longer the individual stays in the starting state. This is known as duration dependence and shows that transitions are concentrated in the first 3 years of a spell.
- Those who do not own their house outright and those who have dependent children are more likely to move out of inactivity with no desire to work into other states.
- Those with a working partner are more likely to be employed than inactive.
- For men, part-time work appears to operate as a bridge between
non-employment and full-time employment, working in both directions. For
women,
part-time work seems to function more as a stable long-term state and only
seems to operate as a bridge to reduce the extent of their participation
in the
labour market,
but not as a bridge into full-time employment .
Notes to editors:
- The analysis was conducted using Longitudinal Labour Force Survey data on 26,000 men and women aged 50 to state pension age over the period 1993 to 2003. The Department commissioned this research from the Policy Studies Institute in conjunction with Universita Cattolica, Milan.
- Research Report 296 – Labour
market transitions among the over-50s is published on 6 December 2005. The
report is available on the DWP website
and hard copies can be obtained from Paul Noakes, 4th Floor, The Adelphi, 1-11
John Adam Street, London WC2N 6HT.
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